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| <header> | |
| <h1>Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025</h1> | |
| <p>Comprehensive Analysis of Vietnam's Economic Performance and Outlook</p> | |
| </header> | |
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| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Executive Summary</h2> | |
| <p>Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. Vietnam's GDP hit 7.52% growth in H1 2025, the highest first-half performance since 2011, led by industry and services. The first half of 2025 recorded growth of 7.52%, marking the highest mid-year growth rate since 2011, driven by strong performance in services and manufacturing sectors, despite global trade tensions and US tariffs.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Key Economic Indicators 2025</h2> | |
| <h3>1. GDP Growth Performance</h3> | |
| <table> | |
| <tr> | |
| <th>Period</th> | |
| <th>GDP Growth (%)</th> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>Q1 2025</td> | |
| <td>6.9</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>Q2 2025</td> | |
| <td>7.96</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>First Half 2025</td> | |
| <td>7.52</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| </table> | |
| <h3>2025 GDP Growth Forecasts</h3> | |
| <table> | |
| <tr> | |
| <th>Institution</th> | |
| <th>Forecast (%)</th> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>World Bank</td> | |
| <td>5.8</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>Asian Development Bank (ADB)</td> | |
| <td>6.6</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>IMF</td> | |
| <td>5.2</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>Government Target</td> | |
| <td>8.3–8.5</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| </table> | |
| <h3>2. Inflation Rate</h3> | |
| <table> | |
| <tr> | |
| <th>Month</th> | |
| <th>Inflation Rate (%)</th> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>May 2025</td> | |
| <td>3.24</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>June 2025</td> | |
| <td>3.57</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| </table> | |
| <p>IMF Forecast for 2025: 2.9% | ADB Forecast for 2025: 4.0%</p> | |
| <p>Inflation remains well-controlled within safe parameters and manageable target range of 3-4.5%.</p> | |
| <h3>3. Unemployment Rate</h3> | |
| <table> | |
| <tr> | |
| <th>Quarter</th> | |
| <th>Unemployment Rate (%)</th> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>Q1 2025</td> | |
| <td>2.20</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| </table> | |
| <p>Unemployment continues at historically low levels, reflecting a stable labor market.</p> | |
| <h3>4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)</h3> | |
| <table> | |
| <tr> | |
| <th>Period</th> | |
| <th>FDI (USD billion)</th> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>First 5 months 2025</td> | |
| <td>18.4</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| <tr> | |
| <td>First Half 2025</td> | |
| <td>21.51</td> | |
| </tr> | |
| </table> | |
| <p>FDI shows strong positive momentum, reflecting foreign investor confidence in Vietnam's economic prospects.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Sectoral Analysis</h2> | |
| <h3>Primary Growth Drivers</h3> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li><strong>Services Sector:</strong> Major contributor to GDP growth</li> | |
| <li><strong>Manufacturing Sector:</strong> Maintains recovery and development trajectory</li> | |
| <li><strong>Export Industries:</strong> Continue as economic backbone</li> | |
| <li><strong>Banking Sector:</strong> Projected to experience a 17% increase in earnings in 2025, driven by a 15% growth in system-wide credit</li> | |
| </ul> | |
| <h3>Retail Performance</h3> | |
| <p>For the first quarter of 2025, retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83 billion), reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year growth.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Challenges and Risk Factors</h2> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li><strong>Global Trade Tensions:</strong> Impact on export activities</li> | |
| <li><strong>US Tariff Policies:</strong> Pressure on export-oriented businesses</li> | |
| <li><strong>Geopolitical Instability:</strong> Increased business uncertainty</li> | |
| <li><strong>FDI Overdependence:</strong> Experts warn of inflation and FDI overdependence</li> | |
| <li><strong>Macroeconomic Stability:</strong> Growth must not come at the expense of macroeconomic stability, rising public debt, or surging inflation</li> | |
| </ul> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Historical Comparison</h2> | |
| <p> | |
| * 2024: GDP growth of 7.1%<br> | |
| * 2025 (forecast): Growth may moderate due to external factors<br> | |
| * Long-term outlook: Resilient fundamentals despite short-term headwinds | |
| </p> | |
| <p>The year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter in 2020-2025 was respectively: 3.21%; 4.85%; 5.42%; 3.46%; 5.98% and 6.93%.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Economic Outlook and Projections</h2> | |
| <h3>Near-term Prospects (2025)</h3> | |
| <p>Vietnam's economy started 2025 strongly, with 6.9% year-on-year growth in the first quarter. However, the outlook is more challenging amid global trade tensions and high uncertainty. Vietnam's economy is expected to maintain solid growth despite global uncertainties. The government's target of 8.3-8.5% appears ambitious given international forecasts, but strong domestic fundamentals provide support.</p> | |
| <h3>Key Supporting Factors</h3> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li><strong>Robust FDI inflows:</strong> Indicating continued investor confidence</li> | |
| <li><strong>Low unemployment:</strong> Supporting domestic consumption</li> | |
| <li><strong>Controlled inflation:</strong> Maintaining purchasing power</li> | |
| <li><strong>Export competitiveness:</strong> Despite trade challenges</li> | |
| <li><strong>Parliamentary Support:</strong> Vietnam's parliament has raised the country's GDP growth target for 2025 from 6.5% to 7% to at least 8%</li> | |
| </ul> | |
| <h3>Risk Mitigation Strategies</h3> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li>Diversify export markets</li> | |
| <li>Strengthen domestic demand</li> | |
| <li>Enhance economic resilience</li> | |
| <li>Maintain macroeconomic stability</li> | |
| <li>Provide room for greater support by fiscal policy to cushion the impact of global shocks if needed</li> | |
| </ul> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section"> | |
| <h2>Conclusion</h2> | |
| <p>Vietnam's economic performance in 2025 demonstrates the country's resilience and growth potential. While external challenges persist, strong fundamentals including low unemployment, controlled inflation, and robust FDI inflows position the economy well for sustained development. The gap between government targets and international forecasts suggests a cautiously optimistic but realistic approach to growth expectations is warranted.</p> | |
| <p>The government is determined to hit the 8% growth target in 2025 to lay the groundwork for double-digit expansion in the years ahead, though international institutions remain more conservative in their projections. The ambitious GDP target rides on the back of an impressive influx of foreign direct investment into the country, demonstrating continued international confidence in Vietnam's economic prospects.</p> | |
| </div> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="toc"> | |
| <h2>Table of Contents</h2> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li><a href="#executive-summary">Executive Summary</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#key-economic-indicators">Key Economic Indicators 2025</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#sectoral-analysis">Sectoral Analysis</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#challenges-and-risk-factors">Challenges and Risk Factors</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#historical-comparison">Historical Comparison</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#economic-outlook">Economic Outlook and Projections</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#conclusion">Conclusion</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="#references">References</a></li> | |
| </ul> | |
| </div> | |
| </div> | |
| <div class="section references" id="references"> | |
| <h2>References and Citations</h2> | |
| <ul> | |
| <li><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual" target="_blank">1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM" target="_blank">2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp" target="_blank">3. World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/" target="_blank">4. Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam" target="_blank">5. Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM" target="_blank">6. IMF - Vietnam and the IMF</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/vietnam" target="_blank">7. FocusEconomics - Vietnam Economic Indicators</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/" target="_blank">8. National Statistics Office of Vietnam - Economic Reports</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://vietnamnet.vn/" target="_blank">9. VietnamNet - Economic News and Analysis</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR" target="_blank">10. IMF - Article IV Mission Reports</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/" target="_blank">11. Vietnam Briefing - Economic Analysis</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://vir.com.vn/" target="_blank">12. Vietnam Investment Review - FDI Statistics</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/foreign-direct-investment" target="_blank">13. Trading Economics - Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.whitecase.com/" target="_blank">14. White & Case - Regional Economic Outlook</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://vneconomictimes.com/" target="_blank">15. Vietnam Economic Times</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.adb.org/countries/viet-nam/main" target="_blank">16. Asian Development Bank - Vietnam Country Partnership</a></li> | |
| <li><a href="https://www.mpi.gov.vn/en/" target="_blank">17. Ministry of Planning and Investment - Vietnam</a></li> | |
| </ul> | |
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