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Sep 9

Extending the WILDS Benchmark for Unsupervised Adaptation

Machine learning systems deployed in the wild are often trained on a source distribution but deployed on a different target distribution. Unlabeled data can be a powerful point of leverage for mitigating these distribution shifts, as it is frequently much more available than labeled data and can often be obtained from distributions beyond the source distribution as well. However, existing distribution shift benchmarks with unlabeled data do not reflect the breadth of scenarios that arise in real-world applications. In this work, we present the WILDS 2.0 update, which extends 8 of the 10 datasets in the WILDS benchmark of distribution shifts to include curated unlabeled data that would be realistically obtainable in deployment. These datasets span a wide range of applications (from histology to wildlife conservation), tasks (classification, regression, and detection), and modalities (photos, satellite images, microscope slides, text, molecular graphs). The update maintains consistency with the original WILDS benchmark by using identical labeled training, validation, and test sets, as well as the evaluation metrics. On these datasets, we systematically benchmark state-of-the-art methods that leverage unlabeled data, including domain-invariant, self-training, and self-supervised methods, and show that their success on WILDS is limited. To facilitate method development and evaluation, we provide an open-source package that automates data loading and contains all of the model architectures and methods used in this paper. Code and leaderboards are available at https://wilds.stanford.edu.

ALOcc: Adaptive Lifting-based 3D Semantic Occupancy and Cost Volume-based Flow Prediction

Vision-based semantic occupancy and flow prediction plays a crucial role in providing spatiotemporal cues for real-world tasks, such as autonomous driving. Existing methods prioritize higher accuracy to cater to the demands of these tasks. In this work, we strive to improve performance by introducing a series of targeted improvements for 3D semantic occupancy prediction and flow estimation. First, we introduce an occlusion-aware adaptive lifting mechanism with a depth denoising technique to improve the robustness of 2D-to-3D feature transformation and reduce the reliance on depth priors. Second, we strengthen the semantic consistency between 3D features and their original 2D modalities by utilizing shared semantic prototypes to jointly constrain both 2D and 3D features. This is complemented by confidence- and category-based sampling strategies to tackle long-tail challenges in 3D space. To alleviate the feature encoding burden in the joint prediction of semantics and flow, we propose a BEV cost volume-based prediction method that links flow and semantic features through a cost volume and employs a classification-regression supervision scheme to address the varying flow scales in dynamic scenes. Our purely convolutional architecture framework, named ALOcc, achieves an optimal tradeoff between speed and accuracy achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. On Occ3D and training without the camera visible mask, our ALOcc achieves an absolute gain of 2.5\% in terms of RayIoU while operating at a comparable speed compared to the state-of-the-art, using the same input size (256times704) and ResNet-50 backbone. Our method also achieves 2nd place in the CVPR24 Occupancy and Flow Prediction Competition.

DISPROTBENCH: A Disorder-Aware, Task-Rich Benchmark for Evaluating Protein Structure Prediction in Realistic Biological Contexts

Recent advances in protein structure prediction have achieved near-atomic accuracy for well-folded proteins. However, current benchmarks inadequately assess model performance in biologically challenging contexts, especially those involving intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), limiting their utility in applications such as drug discovery, disease variant interpretation, and protein interface design. We introduce DisProtBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating protein structure prediction models (PSPMs) under structural disorder and complex biological conditions. DisProtBench spans three key axes: (1) Data complexity, covering disordered regions, G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand pairs, and multimeric complexes; (2) Task diversity, benchmarking twelve leading PSPMs across structure-based tasks with unified classification, regression, and interface metrics; and (3) Interpretability, via the DisProtBench Portal, which provides precomputed 3D structures and visual error analyses. Our results reveal significant variability in model robustness under disorder, with low-confidence regions linked to functional prediction failures. Notably, global accuracy metrics often fail to predict task performance in disordered settings, emphasizing the need for function-aware evaluation. DisProtBench establishes a reproducible, extensible, and biologically grounded framework for assessing next-generation PSPMs in realistic biomedical scenarios.

Benchmarking Large Language Models for Molecule Prediction Tasks

Large Language Models (LLMs) stand at the forefront of a number of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Despite the widespread adoption of LLMs in NLP, much of their potential in broader fields remains largely unexplored, and significant limitations persist in their design and implementation. Notably, LLMs struggle with structured data, such as graphs, and often falter when tasked with answering domain-specific questions requiring deep expertise, such as those in biology and chemistry. In this paper, we explore a fundamental question: Can LLMs effectively handle molecule prediction tasks? Rather than pursuing top-tier performance, our goal is to assess how LLMs can contribute to diverse molecule tasks. We identify several classification and regression prediction tasks across six standard molecule datasets. Subsequently, we carefully design a set of prompts to query LLMs on these tasks and compare their performance with existing Machine Learning (ML) models, which include text-based models and those specifically designed for analysing the geometric structure of molecules. Our investigation reveals several key insights: Firstly, LLMs generally lag behind ML models in achieving competitive performance on molecule tasks, particularly when compared to models adept at capturing the geometric structure of molecules, highlighting the constrained ability of LLMs to comprehend graph data. Secondly, LLMs show promise in enhancing the performance of ML models when used collaboratively. Lastly, we engage in a discourse regarding the challenges and promising avenues to harness LLMs for molecule prediction tasks. The code and models are available at https://github.com/zhiqiangzhongddu/LLMaMol.

Sequential Training of Neural Networks with Gradient Boosting

This paper presents a novel technique based on gradient boosting to train the final layers of a neural network (NN). Gradient boosting is an additive expansion algorithm in which a series of models are trained sequentially to approximate a given function. A neural network can also be seen as an additive expansion where the scalar product of the responses of the last hidden layer and its weights provide the final output of the network. Instead of training the network as a whole, the proposed algorithm trains the network sequentially in T steps. First, the bias term of the network is initialized with a constant approximation that minimizes the average loss of the data. Then, at each step, a portion of the network, composed of J neurons, is trained to approximate the pseudo-residuals on the training data computed from the previous iterations. Finally, the T partial models and bias are integrated as a single NN with T times J neurons in the hidden layer. Extensive experiments in classification and regression tasks, as well as in combination with deep neural networks, are carried out showing a competitive generalization performance with respect to neural networks trained with different standard solvers, such as Adam, L-BFGS, SGD and deep models. Furthermore, we show that the proposed method design permits to switch off a number of hidden units during test (the units that were last trained) without a significant reduction of its generalization ability. This permits the adaptation of the model to different classification speed requirements on the fly.

UniTabE: A Universal Pretraining Protocol for Tabular Foundation Model in Data Science

Recent advancements in NLP have witnessed the groundbreaking impact of pretrained models, yielding impressive outcomes across various tasks. This study seeks to extend the power of pretraining methodologies to facilitating the prediction over tables in data science, a domain traditionally overlooked, yet inherently challenging due to the plethora of table schemas intrinsic to different tasks. The primary research questions underpinning this work revolve around the establishment of a universal pretraining protocol for tables with varied structures, the generalizability and transferability of learned knowledge across tasks, the adaptation to diverse downstream applications, and the incorporation of incremental columns over time. In response to these challenges, we introduce UniTabE, a straightforward yet effective method designed to process tables in a uniform manner, devoid of constraints imposed by specific table structures. UniTabE's core concept relies on representing each basic table element with a module, termed TabUnit. This is subsequently followed by a Transformer encoder to refine the representation. Moreover, our model is designed to facilitate pretraining and finetuning through the utilization of free-form prompts. In order to implement the pretraining phase, we curated an expansive tabular dataset comprising approximately 13B samples, meticulously gathered from the Kaggle platform. This research primarily centers on classification and regression tasks involving tabular data, and conducts rigorous experimental testing and analyses to validate the effectiveness of our methodology. The experimental results demonstrate UniTabE's superior performance against several baselines across massive benchmarks. This, therefore, underscores UniTabE's potential to significantly enhance the semantic representation of tabular data, thereby marking a significant stride for tabular data analysis.

Mixup Your Own Pairs

In representation learning, regression has traditionally received less attention than classification. Directly applying representation learning techniques designed for classification to regression often results in fragmented representations in the latent space, yielding sub-optimal performance. In this paper, we argue that the potential of contrastive learning for regression has been overshadowed due to the neglect of two crucial aspects: ordinality-awareness and hardness. To address these challenges, we advocate "mixup your own contrastive pairs for supervised contrastive regression", instead of relying solely on real/augmented samples. Specifically, we propose Supervised Contrastive Learning for Regression with Mixup (SupReMix). It takes anchor-inclusive mixtures (mixup of the anchor and a distinct negative sample) as hard negative pairs and anchor-exclusive mixtures (mixup of two distinct negative samples) as hard positive pairs at the embedding level. This strategy formulates harder contrastive pairs by integrating richer ordinal information. Through extensive experiments on six regression datasets including 2D images, volumetric images, text, tabular data, and time-series signals, coupled with theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that SupReMix pre-training fosters continuous ordered representations of regression data, resulting in significant improvement in regression performance. Furthermore, SupReMix is superior to other approaches in a range of regression challenges including transfer learning, imbalanced training data, and scenarios with fewer training samples.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Neural Networks for High-Entropy Alloys Design

A wide range of deep learning-based machine learning techniques are extensively applied to the design of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), yielding numerous valuable insights. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) is a recently developed architecture that aims to improve both the accuracy and interpretability of input features. In this work, we explore three different datasets for HEA design and demonstrate the application of KAN for both classification and regression models. In the first example, we use a KAN classification model to predict the probability of single-phase formation in high-entropy carbide ceramics based on various properties such as mixing enthalpy and valence electron concentration. In the second example, we employ a KAN regression model to predict the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of HEAs based on their chemical composition and process conditions including annealing time, cold rolling percentage, and homogenization temperature. The third example involves a KAN classification model to determine whether a certain composition is an HEA or non-HEA, followed by a KAN regressor model to predict the bulk modulus of the identified HEA, aiming to identify HEAs with high bulk modulus. In all three examples, KAN either outperform or match the performance in terms of accuracy such as F1 score for classification and Mean Square Error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for regression of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) by demonstrating the efficacy of KAN in handling both classification and regression tasks. We provide a promising direction for future research to explore advanced machine learning techniques, which lead to more accurate predictions and better interpretability of complex materials, ultimately accelerating the discovery and optimization of HEAs with desirable properties.

T-JEPA: Augmentation-Free Self-Supervised Learning for Tabular Data

Self-supervision is often used for pre-training to foster performance on a downstream task by constructing meaningful representations of samples. Self-supervised learning (SSL) generally involves generating different views of the same sample and thus requires data augmentations that are challenging to construct for tabular data. This constitutes one of the main challenges of self-supervision for structured data. In the present work, we propose a novel augmentation-free SSL method for tabular data. Our approach, T-JEPA, relies on a Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) and is akin to mask reconstruction in the latent space. It involves predicting the latent representation of one subset of features from the latent representation of a different subset within the same sample, thereby learning rich representations without augmentations. We use our method as a pre-training technique and train several deep classifiers on the obtained representation. Our experimental results demonstrate a substantial improvement in both classification and regression tasks, outperforming models trained directly on samples in their original data space. Moreover, T-JEPA enables some methods to consistently outperform or match the performance of traditional methods likes Gradient Boosted Decision Trees. To understand why, we extensively characterize the obtained representations and show that T-JEPA effectively identifies relevant features for downstream tasks without access to the labels. Additionally, we introduce regularization tokens, a novel regularization method critical for training of JEPA-based models on structured data.

Stock Price Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Networks on a Multivariate Timeseries

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four years, from January 2015 till December 2019. Based on the NIFTY data during the said period, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the Close value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual Close values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

Geographic Location Encoding with Spherical Harmonics and Sinusoidal Representation Networks

Learning feature representations of geographical space is vital for any machine learning model that integrates geolocated data, spanning application domains such as remote sensing, ecology, or epidemiology. Recent work mostly embeds coordinates using sine and cosine projections based on Double Fourier Sphere (DFS) features -- these embeddings assume a rectangular data domain even on global data, which can lead to artifacts, especially at the poles. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to the exact design of the neural network architectures these functional embeddings are combined with. This work proposes a novel location encoder for globally distributed geographic data that combines spherical harmonic basis functions, natively defined on spherical surfaces, with sinusoidal representation networks (SirenNets) that can be interpreted as learned Double Fourier Sphere embedding. We systematically evaluate the cross-product of positional embeddings and neural network architectures across various classification and regression benchmarks and synthetic evaluation datasets. In contrast to previous approaches that require the combination of both positional encoding and neural networks to learn meaningful representations, we show that both spherical harmonics and sinusoidal representation networks are competitive on their own but set state-of-the-art performances across tasks when combined. We provide source code at www.github.com/marccoru/locationencoder

Fast & Slow Learning: Incorporating Synthetic Gradients in Neural Memory Controllers

Neural Memory Networks (NMNs) have received increased attention in recent years compared to deep architectures that use a constrained memory. Despite their new appeal, the success of NMNs hinges on the ability of the gradient-based optimiser to perform incremental training of the NMN controllers, determining how to leverage their high capacity for knowledge retrieval. This means that while excellent performance can be achieved when the training data is consistent and well distributed, rare data samples are hard to learn from as the controllers fail to incorporate them effectively during model training. Drawing inspiration from the human cognition process, in particular the utilisation of neuromodulators in the human brain, we propose to decouple the learning process of the NMN controllers to allow them to achieve flexible, rapid adaptation in the presence of new information. This trait is highly beneficial for meta-learning tasks where the memory controllers must quickly grasp abstract concepts in the target domain, and adapt stored knowledge. This allows the NMN controllers to quickly determine which memories are to be retained and which are to be erased, and swiftly adapt their strategy to the new task at hand. Through both quantitative and qualitative evaluations on multiple public benchmarks, including classification and regression tasks, we demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach. Our evaluations not only highlight the ability of the proposed NMN architecture to outperform the current state-of-the-art methods, but also provide insights on how the proposed augmentations help achieve such superior results. In addition, we demonstrate the practical implications of the proposed learning strategy, where the feedback path can be shared among multiple neural memory networks as a mechanism for knowledge sharing.

SSL4Eco: A Global Seasonal Dataset for Geospatial Foundation Models in Ecology

With the exacerbation of the biodiversity and climate crises, macroecological pursuits such as global biodiversity mapping become more urgent. Remote sensing offers a wealth of Earth observation data for ecological studies, but the scarcity of labeled datasets remains a major challenge. Recently, self-supervised learning has enabled learning representations from unlabeled data, triggering the development of pretrained geospatial models with generalizable features. However, these models are often trained on datasets biased toward areas of high human activity, leaving entire ecological regions underrepresented. Additionally, while some datasets attempt to address seasonality through multi-date imagery, they typically follow calendar seasons rather than local phenological cycles. To better capture vegetation seasonality at a global scale, we propose a simple phenology-informed sampling strategy and introduce corresponding SSL4Eco, a multi-date Sentinel-2 dataset, on which we train an existing model with a season-contrastive objective. We compare representations learned from SSL4Eco against other datasets on diverse ecological downstream tasks and demonstrate that our straightforward sampling method consistently improves representation quality, highlighting the importance of dataset construction. The model pretrained on SSL4Eco reaches state of the art performance on 7 out of 8 downstream tasks spanning (multi-label) classification and regression. We release our code, data, and model weights to support macroecological and computer vision research at https://github.com/PlekhanovaElena/ssl4eco.

TabDPT: Scaling Tabular Foundation Models

The challenges faced by neural networks on tabular data are well-documented and have hampered the progress of tabular foundation models. Techniques leveraging in-context learning (ICL) have shown promise here, allowing for dynamic adaptation to unseen data. ICL can provide predictions for entirely new datasets without further training or hyperparameter tuning, therefore providing very fast inference when encountering a novel task. However, scaling ICL for tabular data remains an issue: approaches based on large language models cannot efficiently process numeric tables, and tabular-specific techniques have not been able to effectively harness the power of real data to improve performance and generalization. We are able to overcome these challenges by training tabular-specific ICL-based architectures on real data with self-supervised learning and retrieval, combining the best of both worlds. Our resulting model -- the Tabular Discriminative Pre-trained Transformer (TabDPT) -- achieves state-of-the-art performance on the CC18 (classification) and CTR23 (regression) benchmarks with no task-specific fine-tuning, demonstrating the adapatability and speed of ICL once the model is pre-trained. TabDPT also demonstrates strong scaling as both model size and amount of available data increase, pointing towards future improvements simply through the curation of larger tabular pre-training datasets and training larger models.

CTAB-GAN+: Enhancing Tabular Data Synthesis

While data sharing is crucial for knowledge development, privacy concerns and strict regulation (e.g., European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)) limit its full effectiveness. Synthetic tabular data emerges as alternative to enable data sharing while fulfilling regulatory and privacy constraints. State-of-the-art tabular data synthesizers draw methodologies from Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). As GANs improve the synthesized data increasingly resemble the real data risking to leak privacy. Differential privacy (DP) provides theoretical guarantees on privacy loss but degrades data utility. Striking the best trade-off remains yet a challenging research question. We propose CTAB-GAN+ a novel conditional tabular GAN. CTAB-GAN+ improves upon state-of-the-art by (i) adding downstream losses to conditional GANs for higher utility synthetic data in both classification and regression domains; (ii) using Wasserstein loss with gradient penalty for better training convergence; (iii) introducing novel encoders targeting mixed continuous-categorical variables and variables with unbalanced or skewed data; and (iv) training with DP stochastic gradient descent to impose strict privacy guarantees. We extensively evaluate CTAB-GAN+ on data similarity and analysis utility against state-of-the-art tabular GANs. The results show that CTAB-GAN+ synthesizes privacy-preserving data with at least 48.16% higher utility across multiple datasets and learning tasks under different privacy budgets.

Revisiting Graph Neural Networks on Graph-level Tasks: Comprehensive Experiments, Analysis, and Improvements

Graphs are essential data structures for modeling complex interactions in domains such as social networks, molecular structures, and biological systems. Graph-level tasks, which predict properties or classes for the entire graph, are critical for applications, such as molecular property prediction and subgraph counting. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promise in these tasks, but their evaluations are often limited to narrow datasets, tasks, and inconsistent experimental setups, restricting their generalizability. To address these limitations, we propose a unified evaluation framework for graph-level GNNs. This framework provides a standardized setting to evaluate GNNs across diverse datasets, various graph tasks (e.g., graph classification and regression), and challenging scenarios, including noisy, imbalanced, and few-shot graphs. Additionally, we propose a novel GNN model with enhanced expressivity and generalization capabilities. Specifically, we enhance the expressivity of GNNs through a k-path rooted subgraph approach, enabling the model to effectively count subgraphs (e.g., paths and cycles). Moreover, we introduce a unified graph contrastive learning algorithm for graphs across diverse domains, which adaptively removes unimportant edges to augment graphs, thereby significantly improving generalization performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model achieves superior performance against fourteen effective baselines across twenty-seven graph datasets, establishing it as a robust and generalizable model for graph-level tasks.

EmoLLMs: A Series of Emotional Large Language Models and Annotation Tools for Comprehensive Affective Analysis

Sentiment analysis and emotion detection are important research topics in natural language processing (NLP) and benefit many downstream tasks. With the widespread application of LLMs, researchers have started exploring the application of LLMs based on instruction-tuning in the field of sentiment analysis. However, these models only focus on single aspects of affective classification tasks (e.g. sentimental polarity or categorical emotions), and overlook the regression tasks (e.g. sentiment strength or emotion intensity), which leads to poor performance in downstream tasks. The main reason is the lack of comprehensive affective instruction tuning datasets and evaluation benchmarks, which cover various affective classification and regression tasks. Moreover, although emotional information is useful for downstream tasks, existing downstream datasets lack high-quality and comprehensive affective annotations. In this paper, we propose EmoLLMs, the first series of open-sourced instruction-following LLMs for comprehensive affective analysis based on fine-tuning various LLMs with instruction data, the first multi-task affective analysis instruction dataset (AAID) with 234K data samples based on various classification and regression tasks to support LLM instruction tuning, and a comprehensive affective evaluation benchmark (AEB) with 14 tasks from various sources and domains to test the generalization ability of LLMs. We propose a series of EmoLLMs by fine-tuning LLMs with AAID to solve various affective instruction tasks. We compare our model with a variety of LLMs on AEB, where our models outperform all other open-sourced LLMs, and surpass ChatGPT and GPT-4 in most tasks, which shows that the series of EmoLLMs achieve the ChatGPT-level and GPT-4-level generalization capabilities on affective analysis tasks, and demonstrates our models can be used as affective annotation tools.

A Novel Temporal Multi-Gate Mixture-of-Experts Approach for Vehicle Trajectory and Driving Intention Prediction

Accurate Vehicle Trajectory Prediction is critical for automated vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems. Vehicle trajectory prediction consists of two essential tasks, i.e., longitudinal position prediction and lateral position prediction. There is a significant correlation between driving intentions and vehicle motion. In existing work, the three tasks are often conducted separately without considering the relationships between the longitudinal position, lateral position, and driving intention. In this paper, we propose a novel Temporal Multi-Gate Mixture-of-Experts (TMMOE) model for simultaneously predicting the vehicle trajectory and driving intention. The proposed model consists of three layers: a shared layer, an expert layer, and a fully connected layer. In the model, the shared layer utilizes Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) to extract temporal features. Then the expert layer is built to identify different information according to the three tasks. Moreover, the fully connected layer is used to integrate and export prediction results. To achieve better performance, uncertainty algorithm is used to construct the multi-task loss function. Finally, the publicly available CitySim dataset validates the TMMOE model, demonstrating superior performance compared to the LSTM model, achieving the highest classification and regression results. Keywords: Vehicle trajectory prediction, driving intentions Classification, Multi-task

Towards In-the-wild 3D Plane Reconstruction from a Single Image

3D plane reconstruction from a single image is a crucial yet challenging topic in 3D computer vision. Previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods have focused on training their system on a single dataset from either indoor or outdoor domain, limiting their generalizability across diverse testing data. In this work, we introduce a novel framework dubbed ZeroPlane, a Transformer-based model targeting zero-shot 3D plane detection and reconstruction from a single image, over diverse domains and environments. To enable data-driven models across multiple domains, we have curated a large-scale planar benchmark, comprising over 14 datasets and 560,000 high-resolution, dense planar annotations for diverse indoor and outdoor scenes. To address the challenge of achieving desirable planar geometry on multi-dataset training, we propose to disentangle the representation of plane normal and offset, and employ an exemplar-guided, classification-then-regression paradigm to learn plane and offset respectively. Additionally, we employ advanced backbones as image encoder, and present an effective pixel-geometry-enhanced plane embedding module to further facilitate planar reconstruction. Extensive experiments across multiple zero-shot evaluation datasets have demonstrated that our approach significantly outperforms previous methods on both reconstruction accuracy and generalizability, especially over in-the-wild data. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/jcliu0428/ZeroPlane.

LeYOLO, New Scalable and Efficient CNN Architecture for Object Detection

Computational efficiency in deep neural networks is critical for object detection, especially as newer models prioritize speed over efficient computation (FLOP). This evolution has somewhat left behind embedded and mobile-oriented AI object detection applications. In this paper, we focus on design choices of neural network architectures for efficient object detection computation based on FLOP and propose several optimizations to enhance the efficiency of YOLO-based models. Firstly, we introduce an efficient backbone scaling inspired by inverted bottlenecks and theoretical insights from the Information Bottleneck principle. Secondly, we present the Fast Pyramidal Architecture Network (FPAN), designed to facilitate fast multiscale feature sharing while reducing computational resources. Lastly, we propose a Decoupled Network-in-Network (DNiN) detection head engineered to deliver rapid yet lightweight computations for classification and regression tasks. Building upon these optimizations and leveraging more efficient backbones, this paper contributes to a new scaling paradigm for object detection and YOLO-centric models called LeYOLO. Our contribution consistently outperforms existing models in various resource constraints, achieving unprecedented accuracy and flop ratio. Notably, LeYOLO-Small achieves a competitive mAP score of 38.2% on the COCOval with just 4.5 FLOP(G), representing a 42% reduction in computational load compared to the latest state-of-the-art YOLOv9-Tiny model while achieving similar accuracy. Our novel model family achieves a FLOP-to-accuracy ratio previously unattained, offering scalability that spans from ultra-low neural network configurations (< 1 GFLOP) to efficient yet demanding object detection setups (> 4 GFLOPs) with 25.2, 31.3, 35.2, 38.2, 39.3 and 41 mAP for 0.66, 1.47, 2.53, 4.51, 5.8 and 8.4 FLOP(G).

Benchmarking Multimodal AutoML for Tabular Data with Text Fields

We consider the use of automated supervised learning systems for data tables that not only contain numeric/categorical columns, but one or more text fields as well. Here we assemble 18 multimodal data tables that each contain some text fields and stem from a real business application. Our publicly-available benchmark enables researchers to comprehensively evaluate their own methods for supervised learning with numeric, categorical, and text features. To ensure that any single modeling strategy which performs well over all 18 datasets will serve as a practical foundation for multimodal text/tabular AutoML, the diverse datasets in our benchmark vary greatly in: sample size, problem types (a mix of classification and regression tasks), number of features (with the number of text columns ranging from 1 to 28 between datasets), as well as how the predictive signal is decomposed between text vs. numeric/categorical features (and predictive interactions thereof). Over this benchmark, we evaluate various straightforward pipelines to model such data, including standard two-stage approaches where NLP is used to featurize the text such that AutoML for tabular data can then be applied. Compared with human data science teams, the fully automated methodology that performed best on our benchmark (stack ensembling a multimodal Transformer with various tree models) also manages to rank 1st place when fit to the raw text/tabular data in two MachineHack prediction competitions and 2nd place (out of 2380 teams) in Kaggle's Mercari Price Suggestion Challenge.

CARIL: Confidence-Aware Regression in Imitation Learning for Autonomous Driving

End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.

Automated SSIM Regression for Detection and Quantification of Motion Artefacts in Brain MR Images

Motion artefacts in magnetic resonance brain images can have a strong impact on diagnostic confidence. The assessment of MR image quality is fundamental before proceeding with the clinical diagnosis. Motion artefacts can alter the delineation of structures such as the brain, lesions or tumours and may require a repeat scan. Otherwise, an inaccurate (e.g. correct pathology but wrong severity) or incorrect diagnosis (e.g. wrong pathology) may occur. "Image quality assessment" as a fast, automated step right after scanning can assist in deciding if the acquired images are diagnostically sufficient. An automated image quality assessment based on the structural similarity index (SSIM) regression through a residual neural network is proposed in this work. Additionally, a classification into different groups - by subdividing with SSIM ranges - is evaluated. Importantly, this method predicts SSIM values of an input image in the absence of a reference ground truth image. The networks were able to detect motion artefacts, and the best performance for the regression and classification task has always been achieved with ResNet-18 with contrast augmentation. The mean and standard deviation of residuals' distribution were mu=-0.0009 and sigma=0.0139, respectively. Whilst for the classification task in 3, 5 and 10 classes, the best accuracies were 97, 95 and 89\%, respectively. The results show that the proposed method could be a tool for supporting neuro-radiologists and radiographers in evaluating image quality quickly.

FGBench: A Dataset and Benchmark for Molecular Property Reasoning at Functional Group-Level in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have gained significant attention in chemistry. However, most existing datasets center on molecular-level property prediction and overlook the role of fine-grained functional group (FG) information. Incorporating FG-level data can provide valuable prior knowledge that links molecular structures with textual descriptions, which can be used to build more interpretable, structure-aware LLMs for reasoning on molecule-related tasks. Moreover, LLMs can learn from such fine-grained information to uncover hidden relationships between specific functional groups and molecular properties, thereby advancing molecular design and drug discovery. Here, we introduce FGBench, a dataset comprising 625K molecular property reasoning problems with functional group information. Functional groups are precisely annotated and localized within the molecule, which ensures the dataset's interoperability thereby facilitating further multimodal applications. FGBench includes both regression and classification tasks on 245 different functional groups across three categories for molecular property reasoning: (1) single functional group impacts, (2) multiple functional group interactions, and (3) direct molecular comparisons. In the benchmark of state-of-the-art LLMs on 7K curated data, the results indicate that current LLMs struggle with FG-level property reasoning, highlighting the need to enhance reasoning capabilities in LLMs for chemistry tasks. We anticipate that the methodology employed in FGBench to construct datasets with functional group-level information will serve as a foundational framework for generating new question-answer pairs, enabling LLMs to better understand fine-grained molecular structure-property relationships. The dataset and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/xuanliugit/FGBench.

A Time Series Analysis-Based Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

A Three-Phase Analysis of Synergistic Effects During Co-pyrolysis of Algae and Wood for Biochar Yield Using Machine Learning

Pyrolysis techniques have served to be a groundbreaking technique for effectively utilising natural and man-made biomass products like plastics, wood, crop residue, fruit peels etc. Recent advancements have shown a greater yield of essential products like biochar, bio-oil and other non-condensable gases by blending different biomasses in a certain ratio. This synergy effect of combining two pyrolytic raw materials i.e co-pyrolysis of algae and wood biomass has been systematically studied and grouped into 3 phases in this research paper-kinetic analysis of co-pyrolysis, correlation among proximate and ultimate analysis with bio-char yield and lastly grouping of different weight ratios based on biochar yield up to a certain percentage. Different ML and DL algorithms have been utilized for regression and classification techniques to give a comprehensive overview of the effect of the synergy of two different biomass materials on biochar yield. For the first phase, the best prediction of biochar yield was obtained by using a decision tree regressor with a perfect MSE score of 0.00, followed by a gradient-boosting regressor. The second phase was analyzed using both ML and DL techniques. Within ML, SVR proved to be the most convenient model with an accuracy score of 0.972 with DNN employed for deep learning technique. Finally, for the third phase, binary classification was applied to biochar yield with and without heating rate for biochar yield percentage above and below 40%. The best technique for ML was Support Vector followed by Random forest while ANN was the most suitable Deep Learning Technique.

Scale Mixtures of Neural Network Gaussian Processes

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Large Scale Transfer Learning for Tabular Data via Language Modeling

Tabular data -- structured, heterogeneous, spreadsheet-style data with rows and columns -- is widely used in practice across many domains. However, while recent foundation models have reduced the need for developing task-specific datasets and predictors in domains such as language modeling and computer vision, this transfer learning paradigm has not had similar impact in the tabular domain. In this work, we seek to narrow this gap and present TabuLa-8B, a language model for tabular prediction. We define a process for extracting a large, high-quality training dataset from the TabLib corpus, proposing methods for tabular data filtering and quality control. Using the resulting dataset, which comprises over 1.6B rows from 3.1M unique tables, we fine-tune a Llama 3-8B large language model (LLM) for tabular data prediction (classification and binned regression) using a novel packing and attention scheme for tabular prediction. Through evaluation across a test suite of 329 datasets, we find that TabuLa-8B has zero-shot accuracy on unseen tables that is over 15 percentage points (pp) higher than random guessing, a feat that is not possible with existing state-of-the-art tabular prediction models (e.g. XGBoost, TabPFN). In the few-shot setting (1-32 shots), without any fine-tuning on the target datasets, TabuLa-8B is 5-15 pp more accurate than XGBoost and TabPFN models that are explicitly trained on equal, or even up to 16x more data. We release our model, code, and data along with the publication of this paper.

Verbalized Machine Learning: Revisiting Machine Learning with Language Models

Motivated by the large progress made by large language models (LLMs), we introduce the framework of verbalized machine learning (VML). In contrast to conventional machine learning models that are typically optimized over a continuous parameter space, VML constrains the parameter space to be human-interpretable natural language. Such a constraint leads to a new perspective of function approximation, where an LLM with a text prompt can be viewed as a function parameterized by the text prompt. Guided by this perspective, we revisit classical machine learning problems, such as regression and classification, and find that these problems can be solved by an LLM-parameterized learner and optimizer. The major advantages of VML include (1) easy encoding of inductive bias: prior knowledge about the problem and hypothesis class can be encoded in natural language and fed into the LLM-parameterized learner; (2) automatic model class selection: the optimizer can automatically select a concrete model class based on data and verbalized prior knowledge, and it can update the model class during training; and (3) interpretable learner updates: the LLM-parameterized optimizer can provide explanations for why each learner update is performed. We conduct several studies to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of VML, and hope that VML can serve as a stepping stone to stronger interpretability and trustworthiness in ML.

A Dataset for Distilling Knowledge Priors from Literature for Therapeutic Design

AI-driven discovery can greatly reduce design time and enhance new therapeutics' effectiveness. Models using simulators explore broad design spaces but risk violating implicit constraints due to a lack of experimental priors. For example, in a new analysis we performed on a diverse set of models on the GuacaMol benchmark using supervised classifiers, over 60\% of molecules proposed had high probability of being mutagenic. In this work, we introduce \ourdataset, a dataset of priors for design problems extracted from literature describing compounds used in lab settings. It is constructed with LLM pipelines for discovering therapeutic entities in relevant paragraphs and summarizing information in concise fair-use facts. \ourdataset~ consists of 32.3 million pairs of natural language facts, and appropriate entity representations (i.e. SMILES or refseq IDs). To demonstrate the potential of the data, we train LLM, CLIP, and LLava architectures to reason jointly about text and design targets and evaluate on tasks from the Therapeutic Data Commons (TDC). \ourdataset~is highly effective for creating models with strong priors: in supervised prediction problems that use our data as pretraining, our best models with 15M learnable parameters outperform larger 2B TxGemma on both regression and classification TDC tasks, and perform comparably to 9B models on average. Models built with \ourdataset~can be used as constraints while optimizing for novel molecules in GuacaMol, resulting in proposals that are safer and nearly as effective. We release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/medexanon/Medex{huggingface.co/datasets/medexanon/Medex}, and will provide expanded versions as available literature grows.

Light Schrödinger Bridge

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

Deep Regression Unlearning

With the introduction of data protection and privacy regulations, it has become crucial to remove the lineage of data on demand from a machine learning (ML) model. In the last few years, there have been notable developments in machine unlearning to remove the information of certain training data efficiently and effectively from ML models. In this work, we explore unlearning for the regression problem, particularly in deep learning models. Unlearning in classification and simple linear regression has been considerably investigated. However, unlearning in deep regression models largely remains an untouched problem till now. In this work, we introduce deep regression unlearning methods that generalize well and are robust to privacy attacks. We propose the Blindspot unlearning method which uses a novel weight optimization process. A randomly initialized model, partially exposed to the retain samples and a copy of the original model are used together to selectively imprint knowledge about the data that we wish to keep and scrub off the information of the data we wish to forget. We also propose a Gaussian fine tuning method for regression unlearning. The existing unlearning metrics for classification are not directly applicable to regression unlearning. Therefore, we adapt these metrics for the regression setting. We conduct regression unlearning experiments for computer vision, natural language processing and forecasting applications. Our methods show excellent performance for all these datasets across all the metrics. Source code: https://github.com/ayu987/deep-regression-unlearning

From Logistic Regression to the Perceptron Algorithm: Exploring Gradient Descent with Large Step Sizes

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size gamma to infty. Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

C-Mixup: Improving Generalization in Regression

Improving the generalization of deep networks is an important open challenge, particularly in domains without plentiful data. The mixup algorithm improves generalization by linearly interpolating a pair of examples and their corresponding labels. These interpolated examples augment the original training set. Mixup has shown promising results in various classification tasks, but systematic analysis of mixup in regression remains underexplored. Using mixup directly on regression labels can result in arbitrarily incorrect labels. In this paper, we propose a simple yet powerful algorithm, C-Mixup, to improve generalization on regression tasks. In contrast with vanilla mixup, which picks training examples for mixing with uniform probability, C-Mixup adjusts the sampling probability based on the similarity of the labels. Our theoretical analysis confirms that C-Mixup with label similarity obtains a smaller mean square error in supervised regression and meta-regression than vanilla mixup and using feature similarity. Another benefit of C-Mixup is that it can improve out-of-distribution robustness, where the test distribution is different from the training distribution. By selectively interpolating examples with similar labels, it mitigates the effects of domain-associated information and yields domain-invariant representations. We evaluate C-Mixup on eleven datasets, ranging from tabular to video data. Compared to the best prior approach, C-Mixup achieves 6.56%, 4.76%, 5.82% improvements in in-distribution generalization, task generalization, and out-of-distribution robustness, respectively. Code is released at https://github.com/huaxiuyao/C-Mixup.

Image-level Regression for Uncertainty-aware Retinal Image Segmentation

Accurate retinal vessel (RV) segmentation is a crucial step in the quantitative assessment of retinal vasculature, which is needed for the early detection of retinal diseases and other conditions. Numerous studies have been conducted to tackle the problem of segmenting vessels automatically using a pixel-wise classification approach. The common practice of creating ground truth labels is to categorize pixels as foreground and background. This approach is, however, biased, and it ignores the uncertainty of a human annotator when it comes to annotating e.g. thin vessels. In this work, we propose a simple and effective method that casts the RV segmentation task as an image-level regression. For this purpose, we first introduce a novel Segmentation Annotation Uncertainty-Aware (SAUNA) transform, which adds pixel uncertainty to the ground truth using the pixel's closeness to the annotation boundary and vessel thickness. To train our model with soft labels, we generalize the earlier proposed Jaccard metric loss to arbitrary hypercubes for soft Jaccard index (Intersection-over-Union) optimization. Additionally, we employ a stable version of the Focal-L1 loss for pixel-wise regression. We conduct thorough experiments and compare our method to a diverse set of baselines across 5 retinal image datasets. Our empirical results indicate that the integration of the SAUNA transform and these segmentation losses led to significant performance boosts for different segmentation models. Particularly, our methodology enables UNet-like architectures to substantially outperform computational-intensive baselines. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/SAUNA.

Stop Regressing: Training Value Functions via Classification for Scalable Deep RL

Value functions are a central component of deep reinforcement learning (RL). These functions, parameterized by neural networks, are trained using a mean squared error regression objective to match bootstrapped target values. However, scaling value-based RL methods that use regression to large networks, such as high-capacity Transformers, has proven challenging. This difficulty is in stark contrast to supervised learning: by leveraging a cross-entropy classification loss, supervised methods have scaled reliably to massive networks. Observing this discrepancy, in this paper, we investigate whether the scalability of deep RL can also be improved simply by using classification in place of regression for training value functions. We demonstrate that value functions trained with categorical cross-entropy significantly improves performance and scalability in a variety of domains. These include: single-task RL on Atari 2600 games with SoftMoEs, multi-task RL on Atari with large-scale ResNets, robotic manipulation with Q-transformers, playing Chess without search, and a language-agent Wordle task with high-capacity Transformers, achieving state-of-the-art results on these domains. Through careful analysis, we show that the benefits of categorical cross-entropy primarily stem from its ability to mitigate issues inherent to value-based RL, such as noisy targets and non-stationarity. Overall, we argue that a simple shift to training value functions with categorical cross-entropy can yield substantial improvements in the scalability of deep RL at little-to-no cost.

CLIP-EBC: CLIP Can Count Accurately through Enhanced Blockwise Classification

The CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model has exhibited outstanding performance in recognition problems, such as zero-shot image classification and object detection. However, its ability to count remains understudied due to the inherent challenges of transforming counting--a regression task--into a recognition task. In this paper, we investigate CLIP's potential in counting, focusing specifically on estimating crowd sizes. Existing classification-based crowd-counting methods have encountered issues, including inappropriate discretization strategies, which impede the application of CLIP and result in suboptimal performance. To address these challenges, we propose the Enhanced Blockwise Classification (EBC) framework. In contrast to previous methods, EBC relies on integer-valued bins that facilitate the learning of robust decision boundaries. Within our model-agnostic EBC framework, we introduce CLIP-EBC, the first fully CLIP-based crowd-counting model capable of generating density maps. Comprehensive evaluations across diverse crowd-counting datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our methods. Particularly, EBC can improve existing models by up to 76.9%. Moreover, our CLIP-EBC model surpasses current crowd-counting methods, achieving mean absolute errors of 55.0 and 6.3 on ShanghaiTech part A and part B datasets, respectively. The code will be made publicly available.

Wide and Deep Neural Networks Achieve Optimality for Classification

While neural networks are used for classification tasks across domains, a long-standing open problem in machine learning is determining whether neural networks trained using standard procedures are optimal for classification, i.e., whether such models minimize the probability of misclassification for arbitrary data distributions. In this work, we identify and construct an explicit set of neural network classifiers that achieve optimality. Since effective neural networks in practice are typically both wide and deep, we analyze infinitely wide networks that are also infinitely deep. In particular, using the recent connection between infinitely wide neural networks and Neural Tangent Kernels, we provide explicit activation functions that can be used to construct networks that achieve optimality. Interestingly, these activation functions are simple and easy to implement, yet differ from commonly used activations such as ReLU or sigmoid. More generally, we create a taxonomy of infinitely wide and deep networks and show that these models implement one of three well-known classifiers depending on the activation function used: (1) 1-nearest neighbor (model predictions are given by the label of the nearest training example); (2) majority vote (model predictions are given by the label of the class with greatest representation in the training set); or (3) singular kernel classifiers (a set of classifiers containing those that achieve optimality). Our results highlight the benefit of using deep networks for classification tasks, in contrast to regression tasks, where excessive depth is harmful.

Machine Learning Workflow to Explain Black-box Models for Early Alzheimer's Disease Classification Evaluated for Multiple Datasets

Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models (p<0.05). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.

Monash University, UEA, UCR Time Series Extrinsic Regression Archive

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

CMI-Bench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Evaluating Music Instruction Following

Recent advances in audio-text large language models (LLMs) have opened new possibilities for music understanding and generation. However, existing benchmarks are limited in scope, often relying on simplified tasks or multi-choice evaluations that fail to reflect the complexity of real-world music analysis. We reinterpret a broad range of traditional MIR annotations as instruction-following formats and introduce CMI-Bench, a comprehensive music instruction following benchmark designed to evaluate audio-text LLMs on a diverse set of music information retrieval (MIR) tasks. These include genre classification, emotion regression, emotion tagging, instrument classification, pitch estimation, key detection, lyrics transcription, melody extraction, vocal technique recognition, instrument performance technique detection, music tagging, music captioning, and (down)beat tracking: reflecting core challenges in MIR research. Unlike previous benchmarks, CMI-Bench adopts standardized evaluation metrics consistent with previous state-of-the-art MIR models, ensuring direct comparability with supervised approaches. We provide an evaluation toolkit supporting all open-source audio-textual LLMs, including LTU, Qwen-audio, SALMONN, MusiLingo, etc. Experiment results reveal significant performance gaps between LLMs and supervised models, along with their culture, chronological and gender bias, highlighting the potential and limitations of current models in addressing MIR tasks. CMI-Bench establishes a unified foundation for evaluating music instruction following, driving progress in music-aware LLMs.

Interpretable Multi-Task PINN for Emotion Recognition and EDA Prediction

Understanding and predicting human emotional and physiological states using wearable sensors has important applications in stress monitoring, mental health assessment, and affective computing. This study presents a novel Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that performs Electrodermal Activity (EDA) prediction and emotion classification simultaneously, using the publicly available WESAD dataset. The model integrates psychological self-report features (PANAS and SAM) with a physics-inspired differential equation representing EDA dynamics, enforcing biophysically grounded constraints through a custom loss function. This loss combines EDA regression, emotion classification, and a physics residual term for improved interpretability. The architecture supports dual outputs for both tasks and is trained under a unified multi-task framework. Evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieves an average EDA RMSE of 0.0362, Pearson correlation of 0.9919, and F1-score of 94.08 percent. These results outperform classical models such as SVR and XGBoost, as well as ablated variants like emotion-only and EDA-only models. In addition, the learned physical parameters including decay rate (alpha_0), emotional sensitivity (beta), and time scaling (gamma) are interpretable and stable across folds, aligning with known principles of human physiology. This work is the first to introduce a multi-task PINN framework for wearable emotion recognition, offering improved performance, generalizability, and model transparency. The proposed system provides a foundation for future interpretable and multimodal applications in healthcare and human-computer interaction.

Consistent-Teacher: Towards Reducing Inconsistent Pseudo-targets in Semi-supervised Object Detection

In this study, we dive deep into the inconsistency of pseudo targets in semi-supervised object detection (SSOD). Our core observation is that the oscillating pseudo-targets undermine the training of an accurate detector. It injects noise into the student's training, leading to severe overfitting problems. Therefore, we propose a systematic solution, termed ConsistentTeacher, to reduce the inconsistency. First, adaptive anchor assignment~(ASA) substitutes the static IoU-based strategy, which enables the student network to be resistant to noisy pseudo-bounding boxes. Then we calibrate the subtask predictions by designing a 3D feature alignment module~(FAM-3D). It allows each classification feature to adaptively query the optimal feature vector for the regression task at arbitrary scales and locations. Lastly, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) dynamically revises the score threshold of pseudo-bboxes, which stabilizes the number of ground truths at an early stage and remedies the unreliable supervision signal during training. ConsistentTeacher provides strong results on a large range of SSOD evaluations. It achieves 40.0 mAP with ResNet-50 backbone given only 10% of annotated MS-COCO data, which surpasses previous baselines using pseudo labels by around 3 mAP. When trained on fully annotated MS-COCO with additional unlabeled data, the performance further increases to 47.7 mAP. Our code is available at https://github.com/Adamdad/ConsistentTeacher.

Deep Learning, Machine Learning, Advancing Big Data Analytics and Management

Advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning have catalyzed the transformation of big data analytics and management into pivotal domains for research and application. This work explores the theoretical foundations, methodological advancements, and practical implementations of these technologies, emphasizing their role in uncovering actionable insights from massive, high-dimensional datasets. The study presents a systematic overview of data preprocessing techniques, including data cleaning, normalization, integration, and dimensionality reduction, to prepare raw data for analysis. Core analytics methodologies such as classification, clustering, regression, and anomaly detection are examined, with a focus on algorithmic innovation and scalability. Furthermore, the text delves into state-of-the-art frameworks for data mining and predictive modeling, highlighting the role of neural networks, support vector machines, and ensemble methods in tackling complex analytical challenges. Special emphasis is placed on the convergence of big data with distributed computing paradigms, including cloud and edge computing, to address challenges in storage, computation, and real-time analytics. The integration of ethical considerations, including data privacy and compliance with global standards, ensures a holistic perspective on data management. Practical applications across healthcare, finance, marketing, and policy-making illustrate the real-world impact of these technologies. Through comprehensive case studies and Python-based implementations, this work equips researchers, practitioners, and data enthusiasts with the tools to navigate the complexities of modern data analytics. It bridges the gap between theory and practice, fostering the development of innovative solutions for managing and leveraging data in the era of artificial intelligence.

Anti-Money Laundering in Bitcoin: Experimenting with Graph Convolutional Networks for Financial Forensics

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations play a critical role in safeguarding financial systems, but bear high costs for institutions and drive financial exclusion for those on the socioeconomic and international margins. The advent of cryptocurrency has introduced an intriguing paradox: pseudonymity allows criminals to hide in plain sight, but open data gives more power to investigators and enables the crowdsourcing of forensic analysis. Meanwhile advances in learning algorithms show great promise for the AML toolkit. In this workshop tutorial, we motivate the opportunity to reconcile the cause of safety with that of financial inclusion. We contribute the Elliptic Data Set, a time series graph of over 200K Bitcoin transactions (nodes), 234K directed payment flows (edges), and 166 node features, including ones based on non-public data; to our knowledge, this is the largest labelled transaction data set publicly available in any cryptocurrency. We share results from a binary classification task predicting illicit transactions using variations of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), with GCN being of special interest as an emergent new method for capturing relational information. The results show the superiority of Random Forest (RF), but also invite algorithmic work to combine the respective powers of RF and graph methods. Lastly, we consider visualization for analysis and explainability, which is difficult given the size and dynamism of real-world transaction graphs, and we offer a simple prototype capable of navigating the graph and observing model performance on illicit activity over time. With this tutorial and data set, we hope to a) invite feedback in support of our ongoing inquiry, and b) inspire others to work on this societally important challenge.

On-device Online Learning and Semantic Management of TinyML Systems

Recent advances in Tiny Machine Learning (TinyML) empower low-footprint embedded devices for real-time on-device Machine Learning. While many acknowledge the potential benefits of TinyML, its practical implementation presents unique challenges. This study aims to bridge the gap between prototyping single TinyML models and developing reliable TinyML systems in production: (1) Embedded devices operate in dynamically changing conditions. Existing TinyML solutions primarily focus on inference, with models trained offline on powerful machines and deployed as static objects. However, static models may underperform in the real world due to evolving input data distributions. We propose online learning to enable training on constrained devices, adapting local models towards the latest field conditions. (2) Nevertheless, current on-device learning methods struggle with heterogeneous deployment conditions and the scarcity of labeled data when applied across numerous devices. We introduce federated meta-learning incorporating online learning to enhance model generalization, facilitating rapid learning. This approach ensures optimal performance among distributed devices by knowledge sharing. (3) Moreover, TinyML's pivotal advantage is widespread adoption. Embedded devices and TinyML models prioritize extreme efficiency, leading to diverse characteristics ranging from memory and sensors to model architectures. Given their diversity and non-standardized representations, managing these resources becomes challenging as TinyML systems scale up. We present semantic management for the joint management of models and devices at scale. We demonstrate our methods through a basic regression example and then assess them in three real-world TinyML applications: handwritten character image classification, keyword audio classification, and smart building presence detection, confirming our approaches' effectiveness.

Matbench Discovery -- An evaluation framework for machine learning crystal stability prediction

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

FinAI-BERT: A Transformer-Based Model for Sentence-Level Detection of AI Disclosures in Financial Reports

The proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) in financial services has prompted growing demand for tools that can systematically detect AI-related disclosures in corporate filings. While prior approaches often rely on keyword expansion or document-level classification, they fall short in granularity, interpretability, and robustness. This study introduces FinAI-BERT, a domain-adapted transformer-based language model designed to classify AI-related content at the sentence level within financial texts. The model was fine-tuned on a manually curated and balanced dataset of 1,586 sentences drawn from 669 annual reports of U.S. banks (2015 to 2023). FinAI-BERT achieved near-perfect classification performance (accuracy of 99.37 percent, F1 score of 0.993), outperforming traditional baselines such as Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and XGBoost. Interpretability was ensured through SHAP-based token attribution, while bias analysis and robustness checks confirmed the model's stability across sentence lengths, adversarial inputs, and temporal samples. Theoretically, the study advances financial NLP by operationalizing fine-grained, theme-specific classification using transformer architectures. Practically, it offers a scalable, transparent solution for analysts, regulators, and scholars seeking to monitor the diffusion and framing of AI across financial institutions.

MAMMAL -- Molecular Aligned Multi-Modal Architecture and Language

Drug discovery typically consists of multiple steps, including identifying a target protein key to a disease's etiology, validating that interacting with this target could prevent symptoms or cure the disease, discovering a small molecule or biologic therapeutic to interact with it, and optimizing the candidate molecule through a complex landscape of required properties. Drug discovery related tasks often involve prediction and generation while considering multiple entities that potentially interact, which poses a challenge for typical AI models. For this purpose we present MAMMAL - Molecular Aligned Multi-Modal Architecture and Language - a method that we applied to create a versatile multi-task foundation model ibm/biomed.omics.bl.sm.ma-ted-458m that learns from large-scale biological datasets (2 billion samples) across diverse modalities, including proteins, small molecules, and genes. We introduce a prompt syntax that supports a wide range of classification, regression, and generation tasks. It allows combining different modalities and entity types as inputs and/or outputs. Our model handles combinations of tokens and scalars and enables the generation of small molecules and proteins, property prediction, and transcriptomic lab test predictions. We evaluated the model on 11 diverse downstream tasks spanning different steps within a typical drug discovery pipeline, where it reaches new SOTA in 9 tasks and is comparable to SOTA in 2 tasks. This performance is achieved while using a unified architecture serving all tasks, in contrast to the original SOTA performance achieved using tailored architectures. The model code and pretrained weights are publicly available at https://github.com/BiomedSciAI/biomed-multi-alignment and https://huggingface.co/ibm/biomed.omics.bl.sm.ma-ted-458m.

Predicting the duration of traffic incidents for Sydney greater metropolitan area using machine learning methods

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

Prior-guided Source-free Domain Adaptation for Human Pose Estimation

Domain adaptation methods for 2D human pose estimation typically require continuous access to the source data during adaptation, which can be challenging due to privacy, memory, or computational constraints. To address this limitation, we focus on the task of source-free domain adaptation for pose estimation, where a source model must adapt to a new target domain using only unlabeled target data. Although recent advances have introduced source-free methods for classification tasks, extending them to the regression task of pose estimation is non-trivial. In this paper, we present Prior-guided Self-training (POST), a pseudo-labeling approach that builds on the popular Mean Teacher framework to compensate for the distribution shift. POST leverages prediction-level and feature-level consistency between a student and teacher model against certain image transformations. In the absence of source data, POST utilizes a human pose prior that regularizes the adaptation process by directing the model to generate more accurate and anatomically plausible pose pseudo-labels. Despite being simple and intuitive, our framework can deliver significant performance gains compared to applying the source model directly to the target data, as demonstrated in our extensive experiments and ablation studies. In fact, our approach achieves comparable performance to recent state-of-the-art methods that use source data for adaptation.

Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Beyond Next-Token: Next-X Prediction for Autoregressive Visual Generation

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Transferable Parasitic Estimation via Graph Contrastive Learning and Label Rebalancing in AMS Circuits

Graph representation learning on Analog-Mixed Signal (AMS) circuits is crucial for various downstream tasks, e.g., parasitic estimation. However, the scarcity of design data, the unbalanced distribution of labels, and the inherent diversity of circuit implementations pose significant challenges to learning robust and transferable circuit representations. To address these limitations, we propose CircuitGCL, a novel graph contrastive learning framework that integrates representation scattering and label rebalancing to enhance transferability across heterogeneous circuit graphs. CircuitGCL employs a self-supervised strategy to learn topology-invariant node embeddings through hyperspherical representation scattering, eliminating dependency on large-scale data. Simultaneously, balanced mean squared error (BMSE) and balanced softmax cross-entropy (BSCE) losses are introduced to mitigate label distribution disparities between circuits, enabling robust and transferable parasitic estimation. Evaluated on parasitic capacitance estimation (edge-level task) and ground capacitance classification (node-level task) across TSMC 28nm AMS designs, CircuitGCL outperforms all state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, with the R^2 improvement of 33.64% sim 44.20% for edge regression and F1-score gain of 0.9times sim 2.1times for node classification. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShenShan123/CircuitGCL.

Dynamic-SUPERB Phase-2: A Collaboratively Expanding Benchmark for Measuring the Capabilities of Spoken Language Models with 180 Tasks

Multimodal foundation models, such as Gemini and ChatGPT, have revolutionized human-machine interactions by seamlessly integrating various forms of data. Developing a universal spoken language model that comprehends a wide range of natural language instructions is critical for bridging communication gaps and facilitating more intuitive interactions. However, the absence of a comprehensive evaluation benchmark poses a significant challenge. We present Dynamic-SUPERB Phase-2, an open and evolving benchmark for the comprehensive evaluation of instruction-based universal speech models. Building upon the first generation, this second version incorporates 125 new tasks contributed collaboratively by the global research community, expanding the benchmark to a total of 180 tasks, making it the largest benchmark for speech and audio evaluation. While the first generation of Dynamic-SUPERB was limited to classification tasks, Dynamic-SUPERB Phase-2 broadens its evaluation capabilities by introducing a wide array of novel and diverse tasks, including regression and sequence generation, across speech, music, and environmental audio. Evaluation results indicate that none of the models performed well universally. SALMONN-13B excelled in English ASR, while WavLLM demonstrated high accuracy in emotion recognition, but current models still require further innovations to handle a broader range of tasks. We will soon open-source all task data and the evaluation pipeline.

Latency Adjustable Transformer Encoder for Language Understanding

Adjusting the latency, power, and accuracy of natural language understanding models is a desirable objective of efficient architecture development. This paper proposes an efficient transformer architecture that adjusts the inference computational cost adaptively with desired inference latency speedup. The proposed encoder model can work with fewer Floating Point Operations (FLOPs) than the original Transformer architecture. In fine-tuning phase, the proposed method detects more important hidden sequence elements (word-vectors) in each encoder layer by a proposed Attention Context Contribution (ACC) metric. It eliminates the less important word-vectors based on a new strategy. A mathematical inference speedup analysis is proposed to estimate the speedup accurately to adjust the latency and computational cost of fine-tuning and inference phases. After the fine-tuning phase, by the method offline-tuning property, the inference latency of the model can be adjusted in a wide range of inference speedup selections. The proposed method is applied to the BERTbase model for evaluation. Extensive experiments show that most of the word-vectors in higher BERT encoder layers have less contribution to the subsequent layers; hence, they can be eliminated to improve the inference latency. Experimental results on extensive sentiment analysis, classification, and regression benchmarks like GLUE showed that the method is effective in various datasets. The proposed method improves the inference latency of BERTbase by up to 4.8 times with less than 0.75% accuracy drop on average.

A Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Anatomical Biomarkers of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that primarily affects the aging population by impairing cognitive and motor functions. Early detection of AD through accessible methodologies like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is vital for developing effective interventions to halt or slow the disease's progression. This study aims to perform a comprehensive analysis of machine learning techniques for selecting MRI-based biomarkers and classifying individuals into healthy controls (HC) and unstable controls (uHC) who later show mild cognitive impairment within five years. The research utilizes MRI data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroinformatics Initiative (ADNI) and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies 3 (OASIS-3), focusing on both HC and uHC participants. The study addresses the challenges of imbalanced data by testing classification methods on balanced and unbalanced datasets, and harmonizes data using polynomial regression to mitigate nuisance variables like age, gender, and intracranial volume. Results indicate that Gaussian Naive Bayes and RusBoost classifiers shows an optimal performance, achieving accuracies of up to 76.46% and 72.48% respectively on the ADNI dataset. For the OASIS-3 dataset, Kernel Naive Bayes and RusBoost yield accuracies ranging from 64.66% to 75.71%, improving further in age-matched datasets. Brain regions like the entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, lateral ventricle, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex are identified as significantly impacted during early cognitive decline. Despite limitations such as small sample sizes, the study's harmonization approach enhances the robustness of biomarker selection, suggesting the potential of this semi-automatic machine learning pipeline for early AD detection using MRI.

CheckerPose: Progressive Dense Keypoint Localization for Object Pose Estimation with Graph Neural Network

Estimating the 6-DoF pose of a rigid object from a single RGB image is a crucial yet challenging task. Recent studies have shown the great potential of dense correspondence-based solutions, yet improvements are still needed to reach practical deployment. In this paper, we propose a novel pose estimation algorithm named CheckerPose, which improves on three main aspects. Firstly, CheckerPose densely samples 3D keypoints from the surface of the 3D object and finds their 2D correspondences progressively in the 2D image. Compared to previous solutions that conduct dense sampling in the image space, our strategy enables the correspondence searching in a 2D grid (i.e., pixel coordinate). Secondly, for our 3D-to-2D correspondence, we design a compact binary code representation for 2D image locations. This representation not only allows for progressive correspondence refinement but also converts the correspondence regression to a more efficient classification problem. Thirdly, we adopt a graph neural network to explicitly model the interactions among the sampled 3D keypoints, further boosting the reliability and accuracy of the correspondences. Together, these novel components make CheckerPose a strong pose estimation algorithm. When evaluated on the popular Linemod, Linemod-O, and YCB-V object pose estimation benchmarks, CheckerPose clearly boosts the accuracy of correspondence-based methods and achieves state-of-the-art performances. Code is available at https://github.com/RuyiLian/CheckerPose.

Priority prediction of Asian Hornet sighting report using machine learning methods

As infamous invaders to the North American ecosystem, the Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) is devastating not only to native bee colonies, but also to local apiculture. One of the most effective way to combat the harmful species is to locate and destroy their nests. By mobilizing the public to actively report possible sightings of the Asian giant hornet, the governmentcould timely send inspectors to confirm and possibly destroy the nests. However, such confirmation requires lab expertise, where manually checking the reports one by one is extremely consuming of human resources. Further given the limited knowledge of the public about the Asian giant hornet and the randomness of report submission, only few of the numerous reports proved positive, i.e. existing nests. How to classify or prioritize the reports efficiently and automatically, so as to determine the dispatch of personnel, is of great significance to the control of the Asian giant hornet. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the priority of sighting reports based on machine learning. We model the problem of optimal prioritization of sighting reports as a problem of classification and prediction. We extracted a variety of rich features in the report: location, time, image(s), and textual description. Based on these characteristics, we propose a classification model based on logistic regression to predict the credibility of a certain report. Furthermore, our model quantifies the impact between reports to get the priority ranking of the reports. Extensive experiments on the public dataset from the WSDA (the Washington State Department of Agriculture) have proved the effectiveness of our method.

TANGNN: a Concise, Scalable and Effective Graph Neural Networks with Top-m Attention Mechanism for Graph Representation Learning

In the field of deep learning, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Graph Transformer models, with their outstanding performance and flexible architectural designs, have become leading technologies for processing structured data, especially graph data. Traditional GNNs often face challenges in capturing information from distant vertices effectively. In contrast, Graph Transformer models are particularly adept at managing long-distance node relationships. Despite these advantages, Graph Transformer models still encounter issues with computational and storage efficiency when scaled to large graph datasets. To address these challenges, we propose an innovative Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that integrates a Top-m attention mechanism aggregation component and a neighborhood aggregation component, effectively enhancing the model's ability to aggregate relevant information from both local and extended neighborhoods at each layer. This method not only improves computational efficiency but also enriches the node features, facilitating a deeper analysis of complex graph structures. Additionally, to assess the effectiveness of our proposed model, we have applied it to citation sentiment prediction, a novel task previously unexplored in the GNN field. Accordingly, we constructed a dedicated citation network, ArXivNet. In this dataset, we specifically annotated the sentiment polarity of the citations (positive, neutral, negative) to enable in-depth sentiment analysis. Our approach has shown superior performance across a variety of tasks including vertex classification, link prediction, sentiment prediction, graph regression, and visualization. It outperforms existing methods in terms of effectiveness, as demonstrated by experimental results on multiple datasets.

VANPY: Voice Analysis Framework

Voice data is increasingly being used in modern digital communications, yet there is still a lack of comprehensive tools for automated voice analysis and characterization. To this end, we developed the VANPY (Voice Analysis in Python) framework for automated pre-processing, feature extraction, and classification of voice data. The VANPY is an open-source end-to-end comprehensive framework that was developed for the purpose of speaker characterization from voice data. The framework is designed with extensibility in mind, allowing for easy integration of new components and adaptation to various voice analysis applications. It currently incorporates over fifteen voice analysis components - including music/speech separation, voice activity detection, speaker embedding, vocal feature extraction, and various classification models. Four of the VANPY's components were developed in-house and integrated into the framework to extend its speaker characterization capabilities: gender classification, emotion classification, age regression, and height regression. The models demonstrate robust performance across various datasets, although not surpassing state-of-the-art performance. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate the framework's ability to extract speaker characteristics on a use-case challenge of analyzing character voices from the movie "Pulp Fiction." The results illustrate the framework's capability to extract multiple speaker characteristics, including gender, age, height, emotion type, and emotion intensity measured across three dimensions: arousal, dominance, and valence.

Beyond Binary: Towards Fine-Grained LLM-Generated Text Detection via Role Recognition and Involvement Measurement

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, has resulted in the widespread presence of LLM-generated content on social media platforms, raising concerns about misinformation, data biases, and privacy violations, which can undermine trust in online discourse. While detecting LLM-generated content is crucial for mitigating these risks, current methods often focus on binary classification, failing to address the complexities of real-world scenarios like human-LLM collaboration. To move beyond binary classification and address these challenges, we propose a new paradigm for detecting LLM-generated content. This approach introduces two novel tasks: LLM Role Recognition (LLM-RR), a multi-class classification task that identifies specific roles of LLM in content generation, and LLM Influence Measurement (LLM-IM), a regression task that quantifies the extent of LLM involvement in content creation. To support these tasks, we propose LLMDetect, a benchmark designed to evaluate detectors' performance on these new tasks. LLMDetect includes the Hybrid News Detection Corpus (HNDC) for training detectors, as well as DetectEval, a comprehensive evaluation suite that considers five distinct cross-context variations and two multi-intensity variations within the same LLM role. This allows for a thorough assessment of detectors' generalization and robustness across diverse contexts. Our empirical validation of 10 baseline detection methods demonstrates that fine-tuned PLM-based models consistently outperform others on both tasks, while advanced LLMs face challenges in accurately detecting their own generated content. Our experimental results and analysis offer insights for developing more effective detection models for LLM-generated content. This research enhances the understanding of LLM-generated content and establishes a foundation for more nuanced detection methodologies.

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

OGB-LSC: A Large-Scale Challenge for Machine Learning on Graphs

Enabling effective and efficient machine learning (ML) over large-scale graph data (e.g., graphs with billions of edges) can have a great impact on both industrial and scientific applications. However, existing efforts to advance large-scale graph ML have been largely limited by the lack of a suitable public benchmark. Here we present OGB Large-Scale Challenge (OGB-LSC), a collection of three real-world datasets for facilitating the advancements in large-scale graph ML. The OGB-LSC datasets are orders of magnitude larger than existing ones, covering three core graph learning tasks -- link prediction, graph regression, and node classification. Furthermore, we provide dedicated baseline experiments, scaling up expressive graph ML models to the massive datasets. We show that expressive models significantly outperform simple scalable baselines, indicating an opportunity for dedicated efforts to further improve graph ML at scale. Moreover, OGB-LSC datasets were deployed at ACM KDD Cup 2021 and attracted more than 500 team registrations globally, during which significant performance improvements were made by a variety of innovative techniques. We summarize the common techniques used by the winning solutions and highlight the current best practices in large-scale graph ML. Finally, we describe how we have updated the datasets after the KDD Cup to further facilitate research advances. The OGB-LSC datasets, baseline code, and all the information about the KDD Cup are available at https://ogb.stanford.edu/docs/lsc/ .

A Robust Predictive Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

End-to-End Semi-Supervised Object Detection with Soft Teacher

This paper presents an end-to-end semi-supervised object detection approach, in contrast to previous more complex multi-stage methods. The end-to-end training gradually improves pseudo label qualities during the curriculum, and the more and more accurate pseudo labels in turn benefit object detection training. We also propose two simple yet effective techniques within this framework: a soft teacher mechanism where the classification loss of each unlabeled bounding box is weighed by the classification score produced by the teacher network; a box jittering approach to select reliable pseudo boxes for the learning of box regression. On the COCO benchmark, the proposed approach outperforms previous methods by a large margin under various labeling ratios, i.e. 1\%, 5\% and 10\%. Moreover, our approach proves to perform also well when the amount of labeled data is relatively large. For example, it can improve a 40.9 mAP baseline detector trained using the full COCO training set by +3.6 mAP, reaching 44.5 mAP, by leveraging the 123K unlabeled images of COCO. On the state-of-the-art Swin Transformer based object detector (58.9 mAP on test-dev), it can still significantly improve the detection accuracy by +1.5 mAP, reaching 60.4 mAP, and improve the instance segmentation accuracy by +1.2 mAP, reaching 52.4 mAP. Further incorporating with the Object365 pre-trained model, the detection accuracy reaches 61.3 mAP and the instance segmentation accuracy reaches 53.0 mAP, pushing the new state-of-the-art.

PolyMaX: General Dense Prediction with Mask Transformer

Dense prediction tasks, such as semantic segmentation, depth estimation, and surface normal prediction, can be easily formulated as per-pixel classification (discrete outputs) or regression (continuous outputs). This per-pixel prediction paradigm has remained popular due to the prevalence of fully convolutional networks. However, on the recent frontier of segmentation task, the community has been witnessing a shift of paradigm from per-pixel prediction to cluster-prediction with the emergence of transformer architectures, particularly the mask transformers, which directly predicts a label for a mask instead of a pixel. Despite this shift, methods based on the per-pixel prediction paradigm still dominate the benchmarks on the other dense prediction tasks that require continuous outputs, such as depth estimation and surface normal prediction. Motivated by the success of DORN and AdaBins in depth estimation, achieved by discretizing the continuous output space, we propose to generalize the cluster-prediction based method to general dense prediction tasks. This allows us to unify dense prediction tasks with the mask transformer framework. Remarkably, the resulting model PolyMaX demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on three benchmarks of NYUD-v2 dataset. We hope our simple yet effective design can inspire more research on exploiting mask transformers for more dense prediction tasks. Code and model will be made available.

BioT5+: Towards Generalized Biological Understanding with IUPAC Integration and Multi-task Tuning

Recent research trends in computational biology have increasingly focused on integrating text and bio-entity modeling, especially in the context of molecules and proteins. However, previous efforts like BioT5 faced challenges in generalizing across diverse tasks and lacked a nuanced understanding of molecular structures, particularly in their textual representations (e.g., IUPAC). This paper introduces BioT5+, an extension of the BioT5 framework, tailored to enhance biological research and drug discovery. BioT5+ incorporates several novel features: integration of IUPAC names for molecular understanding, inclusion of extensive bio-text and molecule data from sources like bioRxiv and PubChem, the multi-task instruction tuning for generality across tasks, and a novel numerical tokenization technique for improved processing of numerical data. These enhancements allow BioT5+ to bridge the gap between molecular representations and their textual descriptions, providing a more holistic understanding of biological entities, and largely improving the grounded reasoning of bio-text and bio-sequences. The model is pre-trained and fine-tuned with a large number of experiments, including 3 types of problems (classification, regression, generation), 15 kinds of tasks, and 21 total benchmark datasets, demonstrating the remarkable performance and state-of-the-art results in most cases. BioT5+ stands out for its ability to capture intricate relationships in biological data, thereby contributing significantly to bioinformatics and computational biology. Our code is available at https://github.com/QizhiPei/BioT5.

Mind the Gap: Polishing Pseudo labels for Accurate Semi-supervised Object Detection

Exploiting pseudo labels (e.g., categories and bounding boxes) of unannotated objects produced by a teacher detector have underpinned much of recent progress in semi-supervised object detection (SSOD). However, due to the limited generalization capacity of the teacher detector caused by the scarce annotations, the produced pseudo labels often deviate from ground truth, especially those with relatively low classification confidences, thus limiting the generalization performance of SSOD. To mitigate this problem, we propose a dual pseudo-label polishing framework for SSOD. Instead of directly exploiting the pseudo labels produced by the teacher detector, we take the first attempt at reducing their deviation from ground truth using dual polishing learning, where two differently structured polishing networks are elaborately developed and trained using synthesized paired pseudo labels and the corresponding ground truth for categories and bounding boxes on the given annotated objects, respectively. By doing this, both polishing networks can infer more accurate pseudo labels for unannotated objects through sufficiently exploiting their context knowledge based on the initially produced pseudo labels, and thus improve the generalization performance of SSOD. Moreover, such a scheme can be seamlessly plugged into the existing SSOD framework for joint end-to-end learning. In addition, we propose to disentangle the polished pseudo categories and bounding boxes of unannotated objects for separate category classification and bounding box regression in SSOD, which enables introducing more unannotated objects during model training and thus further improve the performance. Experiments on both PASCAL VOC and MS COCO benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over existing state-of-the-art baselines.

Combining Recurrent, Convolutional, and Continuous-time Models with Linear State-Space Layers

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), temporal convolutions, and neural differential equations (NDEs) are popular families of deep learning models for time-series data, each with unique strengths and tradeoffs in modeling power and computational efficiency. We introduce a simple sequence model inspired by control systems that generalizes these approaches while addressing their shortcomings. The Linear State-Space Layer (LSSL) maps a sequence u mapsto y by simply simulating a linear continuous-time state-space representation x = Ax + Bu, y = Cx + Du. Theoretically, we show that LSSL models are closely related to the three aforementioned families of models and inherit their strengths. For example, they generalize convolutions to continuous-time, explain common RNN heuristics, and share features of NDEs such as time-scale adaptation. We then incorporate and generalize recent theory on continuous-time memorization to introduce a trainable subset of structured matrices A that endow LSSLs with long-range memory. Empirically, stacking LSSL layers into a simple deep neural network obtains state-of-the-art results across time series benchmarks for long dependencies in sequential image classification, real-world healthcare regression tasks, and speech. On a difficult speech classification task with length-16000 sequences, LSSL outperforms prior approaches by 24 accuracy points, and even outperforms baselines that use hand-crafted features on 100x shorter sequences.

OpenMixup: Open Mixup Toolbox and Benchmark for Visual Representation Learning

Mixup augmentation has emerged as a widely used technique for improving the generalization ability of deep neural networks (DNNs). However, the lack of standardized implementations and benchmarks has impeded recent progress, resulting in poor reproducibility, unfair comparisons, and conflicting insights. In this paper, we introduce OpenMixup, the first mixup augmentation codebase, and benchmark for visual representation learning. Specifically, we train 18 representative mixup baselines from scratch and rigorously evaluate them across 11 image datasets of varying scales and granularity, ranging from fine-grained scenarios to complex non-iconic scenes. We also open-source our modular codebase, including a collection of popular vision backbones, optimization strategies, and analysis toolkits, which not only supports the benchmarking but enables broader mixup applications beyond classification, such as self-supervised learning and regression tasks. Through experiments and empirical analysis, we gain observations and insights on mixup performance-efficiency trade-offs, generalization, and optimization behaviors, and thereby identify preferred choices for different needs. To the best of our knowledge, OpenMixup has facilitated several recent studies. We believe this work can further advance reproducible mixup augmentation research and thereby lay a solid ground for future progress in the community. The source code and user documents are available at https://github.com/Westlake-AI/openmixup.

SimMIM: A Simple Framework for Masked Image Modeling

This paper presents SimMIM, a simple framework for masked image modeling. We simplify recently proposed related approaches without special designs such as block-wise masking and tokenization via discrete VAE or clustering. To study what let the masked image modeling task learn good representations, we systematically study the major components in our framework, and find that simple designs of each component have revealed very strong representation learning performance: 1) random masking of the input image with a moderately large masked patch size (e.g., 32) makes a strong pre-text task; 2) predicting raw pixels of RGB values by direct regression performs no worse than the patch classification approaches with complex designs; 3) the prediction head can be as light as a linear layer, with no worse performance than heavier ones. Using ViT-B, our approach achieves 83.8% top-1 fine-tuning accuracy on ImageNet-1K by pre-training also on this dataset, surpassing previous best approach by +0.6%. When applied on a larger model of about 650 million parameters, SwinV2-H, it achieves 87.1% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet-1K using only ImageNet-1K data. We also leverage this approach to facilitate the training of a 3B model (SwinV2-G), that by 40times less data than that in previous practice, we achieve the state-of-the-art on four representative vision benchmarks. The code and models will be publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/SimMIM.

LXMERT: Learning Cross-Modality Encoder Representations from Transformers

Vision-and-language reasoning requires an understanding of visual concepts, language semantics, and, most importantly, the alignment and relationships between these two modalities. We thus propose the LXMERT (Learning Cross-Modality Encoder Representations from Transformers) framework to learn these vision-and-language connections. In LXMERT, we build a large-scale Transformer model that consists of three encoders: an object relationship encoder, a language encoder, and a cross-modality encoder. Next, to endow our model with the capability of connecting vision and language semantics, we pre-train the model with large amounts of image-and-sentence pairs, via five diverse representative pre-training tasks: masked language modeling, masked object prediction (feature regression and label classification), cross-modality matching, and image question answering. These tasks help in learning both intra-modality and cross-modality relationships. After fine-tuning from our pre-trained parameters, our model achieves the state-of-the-art results on two visual question answering datasets (i.e., VQA and GQA). We also show the generalizability of our pre-trained cross-modality model by adapting it to a challenging visual-reasoning task, NLVR2, and improve the previous best result by 22% absolute (54% to 76%). Lastly, we demonstrate detailed ablation studies to prove that both our novel model components and pre-training strategies significantly contribute to our strong results; and also present several attention visualizations for the different encoders. Code and pre-trained models publicly available at: https://github.com/airsplay/lxmert

Flexible Model Aggregation for Quantile Regression

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

A Neural-Guided Dynamic Symbolic Network for Exploring Mathematical Expressions from Data

Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering the underlying mathematical expressions from observed data. Inspired by the success of deep learning, recent efforts have focused on two categories for SR methods. One is using a neural network or genetic programming to search the expression tree directly. Although this has shown promising results, the large search space poses difficulties in learning constant factors and processing high-dimensional problems. Another approach is leveraging a transformer-based model training on synthetic data and offers advantages in inference speed. However, this method is limited to fixed small numbers of dimensions and may encounter inference problems when given data is out-of-distribution compared to the synthetic data. In this work, we propose DySymNet, a novel neural-guided Dynamic Symbolic Network for SR. Instead of searching for expressions within a large search space, we explore DySymNet with various structures and optimize them to identify expressions that better-fitting the data. With a topology structure like neural networks, DySymNet not only tackles the challenge of high-dimensional problems but also proves effective in optimizing constants. Based on extensive numerical experiments using low-dimensional public standard benchmarks and the well-known SRBench with more variables, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of fitting accuracy and robustness to noise.

Impact of a Batter in ODI Cricket Implementing Regression Models from Match Commentary

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Revisiting Discriminative vs. Generative Classifiers: Theory and Implications

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

Let's Make Block Coordinate Descent Converge Faster: Faster Greedy Rules, Message-Passing, Active-Set Complexity, and Superlinear Convergence

Block coordinate descent (BCD) methods are widely used for large-scale numerical optimization because of their cheap iteration costs, low memory requirements, amenability to parallelization, and ability to exploit problem structure. Three main algorithmic choices influence the performance of BCD methods: the block partitioning strategy, the block selection rule, and the block update rule. In this paper we explore all three of these building blocks and propose variations for each that can significantly improve the progress made by each BCD iteration. We (i) propose new greedy block-selection strategies that guarantee more progress per iteration than the Gauss-Southwell rule; (ii) explore practical issues like how to implement the new rules when using "variable" blocks; (iii) explore the use of message-passing to compute matrix or Newton updates efficiently on huge blocks for problems with sparse dependencies between variables; and (iv) consider optimal active manifold identification, which leads to bounds on the "active-set complexity" of BCD methods and leads to superlinear convergence for certain problems with sparse solutions (and in some cases finite termination at an optimal solution). We support all of our findings with numerical results for the classic machine learning problems of least squares, logistic regression, multi-class logistic regression, label propagation, and L1-regularization.

Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classification

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

The Gauss-Markov Adjunction: Categorical Semantics of Residuals in Supervised Learning

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

Balancing Computational Efficiency and Forecast Error in Machine Learning-based Time-Series Forecasting: Insights from Live Experiments on Meteorological Nowcasting

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Learning from Aggregate responses: Instance Level versus Bag Level Loss Functions

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

One Step of Gradient Descent is Provably the Optimal In-Context Learner with One Layer of Linear Self-Attention

Recent works have empirically analyzed in-context learning and shown that transformers trained on synthetic linear regression tasks can learn to implement ridge regression, which is the Bayes-optimal predictor, given sufficient capacity [Aky\"urek et al., 2023], while one-layer transformers with linear self-attention and no MLP layer will learn to implement one step of gradient descent (GD) on a least-squares linear regression objective [von Oswald et al., 2022]. However, the theory behind these observations remains poorly understood. We theoretically study transformers with a single layer of linear self-attention, trained on synthetic noisy linear regression data. First, we mathematically show that when the covariates are drawn from a standard Gaussian distribution, the one-layer transformer which minimizes the pre-training loss will implement a single step of GD on the least-squares linear regression objective. Then, we find that changing the distribution of the covariates and weight vector to a non-isotropic Gaussian distribution has a strong impact on the learned algorithm: the global minimizer of the pre-training loss now implements a single step of pre-conditioned GD. However, if only the distribution of the responses is changed, then this does not have a large effect on the learned algorithm: even when the response comes from a more general family of nonlinear functions, the global minimizer of the pre-training loss still implements a single step of GD on a least-squares linear regression objective.

VSFormer: Value and Shape-Aware Transformer with Prior-Enhanced Self-Attention for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Multivariate time series classification is a crucial task in data mining, attracting growing research interest due to its broad applications. While many existing methods focus on discovering discriminative patterns in time series, real-world data does not always present such patterns, and sometimes raw numerical values can also serve as discriminative features. Additionally, the recent success of Transformer models has inspired many studies. However, when applying to time series classification, the self-attention mechanisms in Transformer models could introduce classification-irrelevant features, thereby compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method, VSFormer, that incorporates both discriminative patterns (shape) and numerical information (value). In addition, we extract class-specific prior information derived from supervised information to enrich the positional encoding and provide classification-oriented self-attention learning, thereby enhancing its effectiveness. Extensive experiments on all 30 UEA archived datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to SOTA models. Through ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved encoding layer and the proposed self-attention mechanism. Finally, We provide a case study on a real-world time series dataset without discriminative patterns to interpret our model.

Anomaly Detection using Autoencoders in High Performance Computing Systems

Anomaly detection in supercomputers is a very difficult problem due to the big scale of the systems and the high number of components. The current state of the art for automated anomaly detection employs Machine Learning methods or statistical regression models in a supervised fashion, meaning that the detection tool is trained to distinguish among a fixed set of behaviour classes (healthy and unhealthy states). We propose a novel approach for anomaly detection in High Performance Computing systems based on a Machine (Deep) Learning technique, namely a type of neural network called autoencoder. The key idea is to train a set of autoencoders to learn the normal (healthy) behaviour of the supercomputer nodes and, after training, use them to identify abnormal conditions. This is different from previous approaches which where based on learning the abnormal condition, for which there are much smaller datasets (since it is very hard to identify them to begin with). We test our approach on a real supercomputer equipped with a fine-grained, scalable monitoring infrastructure that can provide large amount of data to characterize the system behaviour. The results are extremely promising: after the training phase to learn the normal system behaviour, our method is capable of detecting anomalies that have never been seen before with a very good accuracy (values ranging between 88% and 96%).

Predicting Rare Events by Shrinking Towards Proportional Odds

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Domain constraints improve risk prediction when outcome data is missing

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.